Friday, 1 March 2013

Kie's prediction for the Crossfit Open 2013

After my predictions for the 2012 Crossfit Open last year, I'll have a shot at predicting what to expect this year. I am a crossfitter who is a fan of all the games dating all the way back, and know all the open and regional workouts. Again, this is just for fun:

Prediction Workout 13.1 -
7mins AMRAP
Wall balls

Reason: It's all inclusive, crossfit is taking everyone's $20 so they'd piss too many people off if they put pull-ups in the first week and loads of newbie's and girls would lose interest straight off. Everyone can do wall balls and programming burpees again would be too ridiculous. Just as likely to be another single modality that everyone can do. In the rules we might even see a 6" target for wheelchair users

Prediction Workout 13.2 - 
10min AMRAP 
Clean and Jerk 40kgx30, 75kgx30, 100kgx30, 120kgx30

Reason: Everyone loved the snatch WOD 12.2 last year, it brought about loads of PRs and gyms went crazy. Can't do it again and we haven't had a clean and jerk workout since Open 11.2. Rich and Dan to demonstrate face to face.

Prediction Workout 13.3 -   
18min AMRAP
5 Wall climbers, 
9 grasshoppers, 
14 SDHP@40kg

Reason: There has to be an 18-20 minute AMRAP gasser with 3 different modalities in it. The above 3 could be changed for box jumps, wall balls, push-ups, toes-to-bar, K2E, hang cleans, cleans, light deadlifts. Also SDHPs are in the judges course.

Prediction Workout 13.4 - 
12min AMRAP
150 Knees-to-elbows
50 Jump over box
30 Muscle Ups

Reason: Following on from 11.4 and 12.4 there has to be a 10 minute nightmare followed by a 2 minute nightmare to suck all energy out of you so that you fail that muscle up. Big guns will cruise into a 2nd round, fit guys will re-do the WOD in the hope of getting to the muscle up, mediocre guys will get significantly less reps separating the league table clearly. Also Knees-to-elbows are in the judges course.

Prediction Workout 13.5 - 
7min AMRAP
Chest-to-bar Fran Ladder

Reason: There has to be away to compare to last year, that's what crossfit is all about: Timing workouts and measuring against last time to see how much you've improved. Saying that though, you could choose any of the 2012 Open workouts to use as a comparison. I'll go with this one because the results will give people the opportunity to compare 3 years.

1. I wanted to put in overhead squats because they haven't been in since 2011. But I like them too much and that has to cloud my judgement.
2. I wish my wrist didn't hurt, otherwise I'd be hammering my heavy Clean and Jerk efficiency.
3. I wish my wrist didn't hurt, otherwise I'd be hammering thrusters.
4. I've been working on wall balls.
5. I've been working on chest-to-bars
6. I've been working on HSPU & Pistols just in case but I hope they don't come up because I'm sh*t at them (most say these are Regionals only exercises, but other than running and concept 2 rower, you can't count anything out that can be filmed continuously and all garage gyms will have equipment for).
Some say kettlebells will make an appearance this year, but they haven't yet so I steered clear of them. Wouldn't be surprised if they popped up though: 13.1 7min of 1.5 pood? KBS in 13.3? 150 KBS in 13.4?
7. Double unders should be in there, they are bound to come up. But where do they fit into my prediction?
8. I'll update this post after the open with the actual workouts and a review.

Update - Here are the actual WODs

Proceed through the sequence below completing as many reps as possible in 17 minutes of:
40 Burpees
75 pound Snatch, 30 reps
30 Burpees
135 pound Snatch, 30 reps
20 Burpees
165 pound Snatch, 30 reps
10 burpees
210 pound Snatch, as many reps as possible

Complete as many rounds and reps as possible in 10 minutes of:
115 pound Shoulder to overhead, 5 reps
115 pound Deadlift, 10 reps
15 Box jumps, 24" box

Complete as many rounds as possible in 12 mins of: 
150 Wall Balls, 20/14 lbs, 10/9 ft 
90 Double Unders 
30 Muscle Ups 

As many reps in 7 mins as you can of:
3 Clean & Jerks, 135/95 lbs
3 Toes To Bars
6 Clean & Jerks, 135/95 lbs
6 Toes To Bars
9 Clean & Jerks, 135/95 lbs
9 Toes To Bars
12 Clean & Jerks, 135/95 lbs
12 Toes To Bars
15 Clean & Jerks, 135/95 lbs
15 Toes To Bars

AMReps in 4 mins:
15 Thrusters, 100 lbs | 15 reps
15 Chest-to-bar Pull-ups | 15 reps
15 Thrusters, 100 lbs | 15 reps
15 Chest-to-bar Pull-ups | 15 rep
15 Thrusters, 100 lbs | 15 reps
15 Chest-to-bar Pull-ups | 15 rep


Kyal said...

Cool predictions! I agree with a couple, although with slight variations. Here are mine!

13.1 8 min AMRAP
60 Kettlebell swings 1.5/1 pood
30 Push ups (hand release)

I agree with your reasoning and like the idea of a single modality WOD to start off with (KBs or wall balls, say), but I'm thinking they'll mix it up a bit by going for an easy doublet. If enough people are expecting a 7 minute AMRAP, the extra minute might send an extra shiver up their spine. Push ups can get sloppy and hard to judge, though... Butt at or above shoulders at the top of the push up? Hehe

13.2 12 min AMRAP
30 C&J 95/65#
30 C&J 155/105#
30 C&J 205/125#
AMrep C&J 245/140#

I'm in a similar mind as you on this. Wouldn't be very original but be good to have a massive Oly fest like 12.2. C&J take longer than snatches so extended time domain or fewer reps.

13.3 18 min AMRAP
15 SDHP 95/65#
12 Box jump overs 20'
9 OHS 95/65#

Long grinding metcon that works everything -- pulling, jumping, and squatting, working the hips, shoulders, quads, and posterior chain as well as testing coordination and balance -- and has scores in the 400-500+ range. OHS will be light to start with but heavy toward the end, and you'll be punished for dropping the bar by having to snatch it up again when your hips are fried from the other two modalities. Same rep scheme as 12.3 is a bit boring, though... Maybe 18-15-12?

13.4 9 min AMRAP
3 Dumbbell thrusters 80/40#
3 Burpee CTB pull-ups
6-6, 9-9, 12-12, 15-15...

Everyone's expecting 12.5 again and I wouldn't be surprised if it came out -- it wouldn't be original or very CrossFit (unknown) but HQ liked (and I like!) the comparative value in it, so it would be good to do again -- but I think it would be more fun if they mixed it up and, by putting something like this out a week earlier than everyone's expecting, created another level of fear and anticipation in everyone for what's to come with 13.5. Burpee CTB pull-ups take longer and are more taxing than regular CTBs so reduce the thruster load (which should be reduced anyway, because dumbbells make em harder) and extend the time domain.

13.5 10 min AMRAP
75 Snatches 75/55#
60 Wall balls 20/14#
45 Double unders
30 Knees to elbow
15 Muscle ups

A big chipper-style slug to finish the Open. It's light-weight/body-weight work, so you can move quick -- and you'll have to go quick to fit all the reps in within the time cap. Bit of a mean workout, but totally accessible. People who don't have double unders will be doing well just to get through the snatches and wall balls; people who do but don't have muscle ups will be doing well to get through the KTE.

kie said...

Another prediction from the naked exerciser:

kie said...

Hey Kyal,

Arttu and me were having a look through your predictions. Especially the last one because its doable if you're a total beast. Great last workout so we can see how the big guns stack up. It'd make Randy world famous the way 12.4 made Karen world famous last year.

I reckon putting a ladder in on the 4th workout would be a funny way to throw off all the people who've been practicing 12.5 all year too.

First workout too, doesn't have to be a single modality does it. It does have to doable by everyone, but the grueling single modality was done as last year's big shocker, and to do it again would be a bit last yearish.

OHS should be in too eh, we should score better in that workout. I should do a few this week, I haven't done them for ages because I've just been working on weaknesses.